Insanity, LLMs, determination and the future of software development

Insanity Is Doing the Same Thing Over and Over Again and Expecting Different Results

The above quote may or may not be by Albert Einstein. It doesn't really matter.

If you've been around software development for more than about seven minutes, you've probably heard it quoted in some form or another.

It's often used as an argument against blindly repeating yourself, especially when trying to recreate a bug with vague repro steps.

This quote also points to a fundamental difference developers need to consider as the use of LLMs and "AI" become more a part of the software being developed (not just as a tool for developing the code.)

AI (& LLMs in particular) has (have) a level of non-determinism about it (them).

Repeatedly asking the same thing of an LLM shouldn't always produce the same result. 

There's a random element that you almost certainly can't control as an input.

Many software developers likely the certainty of software as (in theory) the same inputs always produce the same outputs. The level of certainty and determinism is reassuring.

Businesses like this too. Although it may not always be as clear.

Looking at the opposite situation highlights the impact on businesses.

Business: "How (or why) did this [bad thing] happen?"

Developer: "We can't say for sure."

Business: "How do we stop it from happening again?"

Developer: "We can add handling for this specific case."

Business: "But how do we stop similar, but not identical, things happening?"

Developer: "We can try and update the training for the AI, or add some heuristics that run on the results before they're used (or shown to the user), but we can't guarantee that we'll never get something unexpected."

Fun times ahead...

not writing about the cutting edge

I think and write slowly - often in combination.

Others are keen to talk/write/speculate about the latest shiny things.

I want to understand how the latest shiny things fit into larger trends and the overall/long term tends.

My first book followed a structure from a presentation first given 6 years earlier and then refined over that time (and the 18 months I spent writing it.)

My next book is in 3 parts.

Part I has its roots in a document I wrote over 20 years before.

Part 2 is based on my own checklist, that I've been building for more than 5 years.

Part 3 is based on a revelation I had and then spent 2 years actively trying to disprove with conversations with hundreds of developers. (Repeatedly asking people to tell me why I'm wrong - was a new, but ultimately enlightening and encouraging experience when no one had an answer.)

Anyway, there's another book coming.

Progress is slow, but I keep discovering new things that must be included and the result wouldn't have been as good if I'd missed them out or if trying to retrofit them into something already written.

Yes, this might be me trying to find excuses for not seeming to have made more progress.

Still, I'm excited for the book and look forward to sharing it's lessons in the (hopefully not too distant) future.

where did the SOCIAL in social media go?

I joined Twitter, and Facebook, and MySpace (although I was a bit late there) on the same day in 2007. Until then I didn't see the point.

MySpace was already pretty much dead by that point. Over the years Facebook became a way of keeping up with family and friends I knew locally. While Twitter became a place to connect with, meet, share, and learn from others with similar interests.

With many people and the friends and acquaintances, I'd made over the years, who had those interests, mostly gathered in one place it made keeping up with announcements, updates, and just general chit -chat possible. I found it reasonably easy to keep up with what was going on in the areas I was interested in. It was, of sorts, a community.

And then a bomb was set off under twitter.

With people leaving at different times and going off in different directions to different alternative apps. It became an impossibility to keep track of everyone who moved to a new platform/app. (Especially with the misinformation about sharing usernames and accounts on other platforms.)

I now have a "presence" in multiple apps (Mastadon, Blue sky, Instagram, Threads, and yes still X -- all profile links 😉) 

But none of them seem a patch on the community that existed before.

In each app there are a few accounts that I used to follow all in one place, but it seems an uncomfortable and unnecessary effort to keep opening and scrolling through each one on the chance of finding something important and/relevant. Plus each now has a terrible signal to noise ratio that is off-putting.

I've tried cross-posting across apps, but the expectations of content on each seems so different. Although I know others treat them as interchangeable--with varying results.

If I just feel the need to say something that I think/hope will get a response I'll go to Twitter/X, but then I'll feel bad because of all the people being vocal elsewhere about why they left and closed their accounts.

Yes, what Elon did to Twitter and what X has become are far from great, but I don't want to be another voice complaining.

How (and) can an online community be created that's anything like what we had in the past?

I know a bit about building communities IRL, but where and how are online communities really built?

Or should I just give up, pick one app, and start making connections again...